This year’s table is ever more striking, given it
visualises the change in performance across the asset classes between 2017 and
2018, which are two of the most polar opposite side-by-side comparisons.
2017 was noted for its lack of volatility, evident in the strong performance of equity markets, so much so that for the first time global equities, based on the MSCI ACWI’s 30-year history, saw a rise in every month of the year. While the US market (S&P 500) did not post a rise it saw a positive return every month once dividends are included, for the first time since 1958. The largest fall for the US market intra-year 2017 was 3%, which is the smallest intra-year fall in any calendar year in the post war period.
In fixed income markets, bond yields finished 2017 at levels close to where they started. The lack of volatility over the year saw US 10-year yields posting their lowest annual trading range since the 1960s.
2017 was also the year of wild speculation, highlighted by the interest in crypto currencies, where bitcoin rose 1,300%, and in the art world, a world record $US450m was paid for Leonardo Da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi, shattering previous records.
The results table reflects this. Equities were the three highest returning asset classes that year, but things were about to change, and fast.
2018 was quite the opposite, with local and global equity markets positing negative returns. With regards to volatility, it was like chalk and cheese. Last year started and ended with bouts of volatility, while February offered investors a glimpse of what could happens as economic conditions and policy shifted, but the markets recovered.
By August the bull market became the longest on record – at nearly 3,500 days and counting. However, October is known for crashes and it didn’t disappoint, with sharp falls in equities and credit markets followed.
Though markets saw a bounce back by the end of the month, it became clear that growing fears around trade and uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs on China had started to flow through into market sentiment. The ‘Santa rally’ proved to be the opposite in December, as global equity markets fell sharply and credit spreads widened under the pressure of trade policy, and ended the year in the red.
Bonds did better in this environment of uncertainty and finished the year the best performing asset class. Proving active asset allocation can be beneficial during uncertain times.
The tale of two years — and the past two in particular — highlights how one year’s winner could be next year’s loser, and diversification is key to weathering all market environments.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this article constitute the
current judgement of the author as of the date of this article. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions
of Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited, ABN 22 000 443 274, AFS Licence
226473 ("Schroders") or any member of the Schroders Group and are
subject to change without notice. In preparing this document, we have relied
upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and
completeness of all information available from public sources or which was
otherwise reviewed by us.
Schroders does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this article. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Schroders and its directors, employees, consultants or any company in the Schroders Group do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this article or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this article or any other person.
This document does not contain, and should not be relied on as containing any investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. You should note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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*Source: All data as at 30 June 2018